Winter Storm Statement
Issued: 11/12/22 0000 UTC
Valid until: 12/12/22 0000 UTC
Nova Scotia Weather Center (NSWC)
Information
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A significant winter storm is expected to impact the
maritime provinces on Tuesday.
A pair of sprawling storms is set to preform a dance of
winter wonder across the maritimes in the upcoming early
to midweek, making for quite the winter event in some
areas.
Approaching from the south from Labrador is a strong
upper-level low pressure system that is expected
to interact with a trough swinging in from the
Great Lakes region. Upon this interaction taking
place, the weaker trough will begin to spiral around
the much stronger low pressure system like a binary
star system in a galaxy. This complex interaction between
the two upper-level systems will create a low pressure
system at the surface that will be responsible for the
hazardous week ahead.
Arctic air forecast to come from the north will meet
up with this system at the time it impacts the maritimes
which will lead to a pounding of heavy snow for some
areas. Cape Breton Island, Prince Edward Island and eastern
New Brunswick are expected to be the hardest hit and
blizzard conditions are a definite possibility.
In other areas, such as the western half of New Brunswick
along with most of mainland Nova Scotia, general model
consensus has come to an agreement that these areas are
likely to be spared from most of the snowfall. However,
rain at times heavy as well as gusty winds is still a
possibility and will need to be monitored.
A breakdown of what can be expected, depending on location:
CAPE BRETON:
Models have come to an agreement that Cape Breton is likely
to be in the crosshairs of the worst impacts from this
system. As of this statement, models range anywhere between
30 to 60 centimetres of snow with the highest amounts being along
the eastern Cape Breton coast and in the highlands. Gusty winds
are also likely to be an issue with general consensus lying
at around 80 to 100 km/h, which will lead to widespread
blizzard conditions in combination with the heavy snowfall.
Snowfall will begin in the early morning hours of Tuesday
before quickly becoming heavy by around noon. This, combined
with the winds mentioned earlier, will lead to blizzard
conditions which means that road travel will become impossible
and visibility will drop to very low levels, likely under
400m. These conditions will last throughout the day, leading
to hefty totals across much of the island before tapering off
in the overnight hours. There is a back and forth debate between
models in whether or not a switch to rain will occur around
this time, but regardless it would be short lived and would
not have an impact on the overall forecast. If this switch
does not occur then totals will only go higher.
MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA:
Mainland Nova Scotia is more of a wild card than elsewhere
and the forecast remains fairly uncertain across this
area of Nova Scotia. What we can say, so far however, is
that the areas most likely to see accumlating snow will
be in portions bordering Cape Breton, more specifically
Antigonish and Guysborough counties, as well as northern
mainland Nova Scotia. These areas have a good chance at
seeing totals within the 20 centimetre range. In western
Nova Scotia, specifically the valley region, accumulation
anywhere between 10 to 20 centimetres is possible but
remains rather uncertain. A more detailed forecast for this
region should be available by tomorrow.
Snowfall will sweep across the northern and eastern sections
of mainland late night Tuesday and continue throughout the
overnight hours and into Wednesday before tapering off by
noon. Because this snowfall is not expected to be nearly
as heavy as it will be in Cape Breton, totals are unlikely
to be too significant but something to watch out for either
way. Elsewhere in mainland Nova Scotia may see some light
snowfall, rainfall or a mix of both. Wind gusts will be the
highest along the coast, particularly in the east and could
gust up to 80 to 90 km/h.
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND:
Conditions here will be similar to those in Cape Breton
but to a lesser degree. As of now, the general consensus
is between 20 to 30 centimetres of snow will locally higher
totals possible, particularly on the eastern side of the
province. This, combined with wind gusts ranging between
60 to 80 km/h, will give a good possibility for blizzard
or at least blizzard-like conditions.
Snowfall will begin in the late evening into early night
hours of Tuesday and will progressively get heavier by
the early morning hours of Wednesday. Road conditions will
become highly hazardous and visibility is likely to drop
near or even below 400m at times. A brief switch to rain
is possible moving into noon Wednesday but snow is likely
to return regardless shortly afterward before tapering off
by Wednesday afternoon.
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK:
The eastern half of New Brunswick will likely recieve
similar conditions to those in P.E.I. with totals reaching
between 20 to 30 centimetres, locally higher amounts will
be possible especially in northeastern New Brunswick. Wind
gusts along the eastern coast are likely to be more intense
then in P.E.I. however, with values surpassing 80 km/h and
potentially reaching up to 90 km/h.
Snowfall will begin in the early morning hours of Wednesday
and become heavy by noon. Heavy snowfall combined with high
wind gusts are likely to lead to blizzard conditions, leaving
road conditions highly hazardous and visibility under 400m
for an extended period of time. Conditions will improve by
the late night hours as the snow tapers off.
Areas not mentioned here, such as the western half of New
Brunswick, are unlikely to be affected much if at all.
The Nova Scotia Weather Centre will continue to provide
updates and other important information as this event
draws closer.
~~ NSWC
Alerts in effect
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There are no alerts in effect anywhere in Nova Scotia
that are related to this statement. Refer to Environment
Canada's official website for more information on issued
alerts.
